Well, it turns out that Feb. 11 was the big day.

After about 18 days of protests, they finally got what they wanted. Mubarak has stepped down, and given control of the country to the “supreme military council”. However, I find it interesting to note how the regime has acted as we got to this point. What follows below is strictly my own recall of the events as they unfolded over the past two weeks. I want to write my thoughts here so that I can remember them for the future.

During the majority of the protests, I have been impressed with the restraint shown by the majority of protesters. During the whole ordeal, the Mubarak regime wanted to ensure that it was being perceived as the higher moral authority and on the side of justice. However, depending on whose propaganda you believe, you can look at the events of the past 18 days and start to wonder:

• Mubarak dissolves parliament and cabinet. This seems at first like a typical attempt to appease the masses. Remember that the protests started up as a relatively small (~40k?) set of protests.
• Mubarak appoints a vice president for the first time in 30 years. What took him so long? It was at this point that it seemed he was making concessions. If he believed the country truly needed a vice president, he could have done so when he was elected. What’s more, he chose someone from his regime to fill the post, which is expected, but couldn’t possibly appease the masses.
• It was somewhere around this point that looters started showing up. The army was called in and started guarding key government buildings. There were reports (mainly by Al Jazeera, a fairly biased source) that looting was being instrumented by plain clothed police officers. They allegedly knew this because when the protesters pulled one of them off a motorcycle, he had his police credentials on him. Was this an attempt to discredit the protesters?
• Then, the pro-government supporters started showing up. Violent confrontations erupted. This was notably after the announcement by Mubarak that he would not run for re-election in September, and that he was not seeking to install his son into power. At this point, it was difficult to distinguish the protesters from a mob. Videos from Jan 28th show anarchy and violence in the streets, with official vehicles running over civilians. There were also alleged reports that the regime had sent mass text-messages in order to rally pro-government factions. Was all this just another mind game by Mubarak? Interestingly, the pro-government opposition seemed to disappear a few days later, as peaceful protests continued.
• The Internet then went silent. Why would an administration who cares about its people possibly have any reason to disable the Internet? Were they using the “violent” protests as a justification to restore order in their country? Notably, Al Jazeera also lost their press credentials during this time, and other reporters started being attacked.
• A prison riot occurs, resulting in many prisoners either being killed or escaping. A regime ministry would later use this as a reason to keep the state of emergency in effect after calls for its lifting.
• The Internet returns, with the regime stating that Mubarak will institute constitutional reforms to limit presidential term limits, and open elections to more opposition parties. He states that there will be chaos if he steps down immediately, and that he believes that he should be able to step down with dignity in September. He says that he has done many things for Egypt.
• NDP members, including Mubarak’s son, finally resign. Some flee, or attempt to flee the country.
• At this point, around February 10th, there are reports that Mubarak will step down, but instead, he delivers a speech saying that he will die on Egyptian soil, and that he will continue as president, but that he will delegate his powers to his vice president. The entirety of Liberation square, in anticipation of his announcement, has been trolled. Some suggest that he is baiting the protesters once again in an attempt to get them to attack the presidential palace or state tv station. Is this truly the case?
• Feb. 11th, Mubarak finally announces his resignation, flees Cairo, and hands over power to the military council. Suleiman looks pissed.

So, was this all a series of elaborate ruses by an experienced autocracy, or were they just winging it like everyone else? Mubarak definitely attempted to give the impression that he was in control when appearing on State TV, which is expected. Many of the above points are difficult to verify. All we know for certain is that there were grievances, and that Mubarak finally decided that his continued stay in office was tenuous.

When I think about revolution, I’m not only worried about causes, but legitimacy. After it’s over, it obviously doesn’t matter anymore. Regardless of size, the successful revolution will always claim legitimacy. We, however, only saw a small portion of Egypt during these protests. We were limited to the confines of not only Liberation square, but also small portions of Alexandria and occasionally other cities. When you consider that Egypt has 80 million people, mostly confined to the Nile Delta, I wonder why the protesters didn’t have even more significant backing. Granted, it grew over time, but it didn’t seem from my small couch in the states like it had the type of support you would expect in these situations. The whole thing ended up being fairly surreal.

Regardless, whatever the cause and whether it was “legitimate” or not, I say Congrats Egypt. Welcome to a new beginning.